Pommygranate

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Quote of the Day

But don’t for a moment imagine that the bicycle-riding, organic-hedgerow-grazing, self-denying, 40-watt miserablists are in fact selfless crusaders for the common good. Never underestimate the sustaining pleasure in a hair shirt. Just look at George Monbiot, and witness a man who couldn’t be happier about the imminent demise of life as we know it. It’s given him purpose, prestige and celebrity: without global warming he’d be a geography teacher.

AA Gill

via Tom Paine

Coach Rage

Football NSW has sent an email to more than 1000 clubs after a torrent of complaints about abusive coaches reports the SMH.

"The latest call today was about a 45-year-old coach of an under 8s team who got down into the face of a child and yelled abuse at him and belittled him in front of his team mates until he broke down in tears. Why? Because he didn't kick the ball straight!!!!"

Michelle Hanley, member protection information officer at Football NSW (and prolific user of CAPITALS and EXCLAMATION MARKS!!!!!), said she sent the email to steer the game's focus back towards fun.

"What was to be gained by reducing this child to tears? AND, how does this help the child enjoy the game? I am ABSOLUTELY appalled at some of the things I am hearing about how the clubs chose to deal with these issues. Many think that asking the child to leave the club is the answer!!!"

Quite RIGHT Michelle!!!

Football NSW has 220,000 players, about 180,000 of them children. The president of Football NSW, Ian Holmes, said coach rage was a societal problem. What?

"We're trying to ensure that the win-win philosophy in everyday life does not filter down into junior sport."

I coach my son's U8 football team. Drilled into all us coaches is the message that winning is irrelevant and the taking part is all that counts. You try telling this to nine hyper-competitive boys who have just lost a closely fought 1-0 dogfight.

At any age having fun is all that matters, not just at this tender age. And winning and losing is a part of life. Once can't pretend it doesn't exist. The skill is in teaching the boys how to handle defeat with courage and how to celebrate winning with grace and dignity.

Michelle personifies the feminisation of boys' early years.

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Sedgefield Council Election Result

Results for the Sedgefield District Council election.

Lucy Howels (Labour) 441 votes
Amanda Foster (BNP) 75 votes
Shirley Bowes (Conservative) 0 votes

Our Shirls failed to attract a single vote, not even her son, Graham. She couldn't even vote for herself because she lives outside the ward she was standing for.

"I knew I wasn't going to win but I hoped I might pick up at least one vote."

Nothing like aiming high, Shirls. That's the spirit girl.

Greenbattery

This is wrong on so many levels.

A paper by the Optimum Population Trust says that if couples had two children instead of three they could cut their family's carbon dioxide output by the equivalent of 620 return flights a year between London and New York.

Hold that thought. 620?

Given that nearly all the world's population growth is coming from developing nations, i assume they are advocating mass population control in places such as Africa?

Err, no.

Professor Guillebaud, Chairman of the OPT, says rich countries should be the most concerned about family size as their children have higher per capita carbon dioxide emissions.

Call me cynical but i'm beginning to think the Enviro movement is a crock. Here's another shocker - not from some quack agency this time but from the UK Dept of Education which has just thrown the principles of balance enshrined in the 1996 Education Act* out of the window.

The Education and Environment Ministries have just sent out their Secondary Schools Climate Change Pack to schools. This kit contains amongst other things,

i) DVD copy of An Inconvenient Truth
ii) DVD containing four short films commissioned by Defra:Tomorrow’s Climate, Today’s Challenge, My CO2, Diaries of the Climate Change Champions
iii) The Carbon Cycle animation by Climate Change Champion Sofia Selska

UKIP Peer Lord Pearson asked the government to halt the process, and having had the request rejected suggested that this pack also include the Channel 4 film “The Great Global Warming Swindle”. This suggestion too was rejected.

*The 1996 Education Act states that

The local education authority, governing body and head teacher shall take such steps as are reasonably practicable to secure that where political issues are brought to the attention of pupils ...they are offered a balanced presentation of opposing views.

Gaia - the new God

Monday, May 07, 2007

UK House Prices; Caveat Emptor

A surprisingly accurate article from Will Hutton in this weekend's Observer, reprinted in Comment Is Free, about the need for the Bank of England to raise interest rates significantly to stem the house price bubble.

His observations are as follows;

i) Housing today is seen as a 'one-way bet'
ii) Money is cheap and hence people are taking ever larger mortages
iii) Lending standards are too lax
iv) The scarcity of property has contributed to its rise
v) Valuations (at six times earnings) are sky-high
vi) Rising inflation will cause interest rates to eventually rise to much higher levels, crippling mortgage holders.

Will's Solutions
a) Tighten bank lending standards
b) Raise rates significantly, starting with a 0.75% increase on Thursday

To examine Will's article, one must first realise that the British housing market boom is not isolated. The world is experiencing a housing price bubble, and the most important market is that of the US. Therefore, to see the future of our bubble, one must look first at the US market.

The last major market to experience such a bubble was the Tech Bubble, which ended spectacularly in March 2000 . If only we had all sold our shares in Cisco and Microsoft in March 2000! But how does one predict the end of a bubble? First, some golden rules;

Golden Rule No. 1
Markets bottom when no one is any longer calling for the bottom. They bottom in silence.
When you hear about 'one-way' bets, worry.

Golden Rule No. 2
All asset prices move in cycles.

The housing cycle started in 1993 when the market bottomed. You literally couldn't give away property in 1993. No-one was calling for a turnaround. This is best measured by Housing Starts, ie the number of new properties being built.

The graph above shows the number of new US properties over the past fifty years. The current upswing ended in January 2006 and the market has been falling ever since. The upswing was the longest in recent US history.

So how long do downturns last? We are currently into month 16 of the US downturn. The shortest downturn on record was 28 months in 1972. The average is 46 months or nearly four years.

Another measure of the future direction of the housing market is the number of homes available for sale - inventory. In the US this indicator has just peaked at an all time high.

This is the equivalent of six months supply.

Every single time over the last forty years at least that months supply of homes for sale has been at eight months or above, we've either been entering or in an official recession. No exceptions.

Golden Rule No. 3

The first behavioural stage of every asset class cycle decline is denial. And the denial of the moment is over price. Sellers are reluctant to drop prices and buyers reluctant to pay current prices. So what about valuation. Are UK house prices overvalued?

Valuations

Asset prices trade at fair value over the course of a cycle. However within the cycle, prices can dramatically over- and undershoot.

Golden Rule No. 4

Over the short term, asset prices are driven by supply and demand.

The UK has a twin policy of restricting land for housing development (supply is reduced) and encouraging mass immigration (increasing supply). This almost turbo-charges the rally in prices over the short term.

i) The long term average ratio of house prices to earnings (the key metric) is 3.5:1. It is currently 6:1. However, this ratio can trend higher during a period of low interest rates.

ii) Hence the second metric is the mortgage affodability ratio. This is a measure of the % of a first time buyer's wage that must go toward paying the mortgage. On this measure, the UK housing market looks fairly priced at 39% of earnings.

iii) Another metric is the rental yield. This is the same as the dividend yield of a share. It measures the annual dividend of a house (its rent) divided by the market price. current UK rental yields are around 4% versus an historical average of 8%.

Inflation

Central Banks across the world have been pursuing a policy of containing goofd inflation but ignoring asset prices. This has created bubbles everywhere (currently in property and commodities). The actual rate of inflation experienced by indiviuals is way higher than the reported rate by Central Banks. The UK is currently experiencing a resurgence of even this under-reported inflation. Hutton is right that mortgage rates are headed inexorably higher.

For anyone thinking of taking on a buy-to-let property now, pay heed to this graph showing the comparison with Japan in the 1990s. As a reminder, the Japanese housing market is only just starting to show signs of recovery, 15 years after it first began to fall.

Congratulations Sarko!

So congratulations to Nicholas Sarkozy, the new President of France. Some observations;

i) Voter turnout was an astonishing 85%. Not sure this is a good thing or not. Whilst it is surely an impressive statistic, it also underlies the fact that the French electorate realises that something has gone terribly wrong with French politics of late.

ii) Readers of the BBC's Have Your Say site are overwhelmingly in favour of Sarkozy - interesting.

iii) The car burning has begun. 500 anti-Sarkozy demonstrators, some wearing masks and

carrying black flags, are fighting riot police with bricks and bottles at the Place de la Bastille in Paris. 34 cars were torched last night in the Paris area and 20 in Lille. In Evry, a police patrol was shot at at the Place de la Commune. Unidentified gunmen armed with pump rifles were spotted in the Grande Borne a Grigny.

iv) Is the much-loved French 'innovation', the 35-hour week, now in jeopardy?

Best place to follow unfolding events is No Pasaran.

Saturday, May 05, 2007

The Rise, Fall and Rise of Al Qaeda

An absolutely fascinating look at Al-Qaeda in this month's Foreign Affairs magazine. By far and away the most informative piece on AQ i have ever read. In particular, read the recommended course of action that the US must adopt to deal with this growing force.

Here's the key points.

Bases of Operation

Thanks to Bush's ill conceived diversion in Iraq, AQ has gained a new base in the Waziri lands of Pakistan and Western Iraq, despite losing its former base in Afghanistan. Government-led crackdowns on AQ in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt have proved successful, demonstrating that AQ thrives in failed states alone. AQ is now exploring Lebanon as a possible next option as well as Yemen, Bangladesh and Gaza. Africa is also being investigated by AQ as a source of operations. AQ-sponsored terrorists are fighting the Christian Ethiopians in Somalia and after a setback at Christmas, have since regained the upper hand. In Algeria, AQ is aiming to revive a civil war that killed 100,000 people in the 1990s. The GSPC , a Salafist terror group that carried out a deadly attack in April killing 30, has since been renamed 'AQ in the Islamic Maghreb' on the orders of Bin Laden.

AQ Strategy

Bin Laden's strategy is to 'provoke and bait' the US into 'bleeding wars' throughout the Islamic world. He believes he can bankrupt the US, in the same way he bankrupted the Soviet Union and he is now actively trying to trigger a war between Iran and the US. Between 2002 and 2004, AQ's strategy was one of survival, building a new base in Quetta, in Pakistan, but in 2007 it is resurgent in every aspect.

In 2006, AQ upped the propaganda efforts, quadrupling its video production and distributing these through a network of some 4,500 Jihadi websites.

Afghanistan

The key to the fall of Afghanistan was not the assassination of Mullar Omar, the Taliban leader, but the defection of Pakistan to the US. Up until then, 60,000 Pakistani volunteers had seved in Omar's army providing military expertise and political patronage.

By 2006, the Taliban had re-grouped and prepared to retake Kandahar. They imported new tactics from Iraq, such as suicide bombings and better explosive devices. Talliban attacks rose from 1,632 in 2005 to 5,388 in 2006. They also forged new alliances with Kashmiris groups, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, joining forces to launch a deadly attack on Mumbai last July.

Iraq

Before 9/11, AQ had no presence in Iraq, but in Feb 2003, Bin Laden ordered thousands of Arab insurgents into the country and demanded they join forces with the Baathists, "the socialist infidels" as he called them.

In late 2002, Abu al-Zarqawi established operations in Iraq. He adopted a two-pronged policy. First to isolate US forces by scaring other Western countries from commiting troops and second to focus on the fault line in Iraq - the Sunni/Shia divide by pushing for a civil war. To this end, he orchestrated a number of attacks on sacred Shiite sites, such as those in Najaf, Baghdad and Samarra.

AQ's No 2, Zawahiri, privately disagreed with Zarqawi's policy of pitting Muslim against Muslim, but Zarqawi had the support of Bin Laden, who declared him in Dec 04, "the prince of AQ in Iraq". Despite the death of Zarqawi, desrcibed as the most vicious of all the AQ operatives, his group declared a Sunni state in Iraq, "the Islamic State of Iraq" in Oct 06, declaring opposition to the Shiites in the South and the Kurds in the North.

The UK - Centre of AQ operations in The West

AQ's new base in Pakistan opened up a new route to the West via the UK and its large Pakistani population. Pakistani-born Britons can travel easily between the two countries, facilitating recruitment, communications and training. Pakistan received 400,000 visits from British residents in 2004 alone. With entry to the US made more difficult by homeland security measures, the UK has become the focal point for AQ's activities in the West. In Nov 06, Eliza Manningham-Butler, the Head of MI5, said that some 200 networks of Pakistani Brits were operating and being monitored in the UK. Over 30 plots have been attempted on UK soil alone, all but one being disrupted. The attempt to destroy ten commercial planes en route from the UK to the US last summer was also tied back to the Pakistani-British network.

Iran

The biggest headache for AQ, though, remains Shia Iran. AQ is worried about the future of the Sunni minority in Iraq once the US troops have gone. In an ominous statement last November, Abu Hamza al-Masri, Zarqawi's successor, warned that the US invasion had "revived the old Persian Safavid Empire". He annouced that he eagerly anticipated an American attack on Iran and AQ has already told Sunnis living in Iran to evacuate towns close to nuclear installations, in anticipation of an imminent attack. The article warns that an attack on Iran would be catastrophic for the West, as it would lead the field wide open for complete AQ dominance, by simultaneously weakening Iran and the US, and by increasing Muslim support for jihad against The West.

What To Do?

1. Focus on taking out the leadership of AQ. Killing Bin Laden must be the top priority.

2. Do not attack Iran.

3. Enhance the commitment to Afghanistan by providing more troops to the country (NATO countries in particular must start to contribute) and a lot more money for infrastructure.

4. Pull the troops out of Iraq. The civil war is already raging and there is no place now for US troops. They should be diverted to Afghanistan.

5. Encourage the partners in the Meditarrean Dialogue - Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco - to contribute to the stabilisation of Afghanistan.

6. Secure Afghanistan's 1,500 mile border with Pakistan. Include Iran in this process.

7. Reach out to India for help in Afghanistan. New Delhi has already provided $500 million in aid for Afghanistan, and the country has a national interest in defeating Islamist terrorism.

8. Take a much firmer stance with Pakistan and enlist its help in tracking down the AQ leaders. President Musharraf has promised much but delivered little in return for the $10 billion it has received from Washington since 9/11.

9. The US must understand it is engaged in a war of ideas. It must step up and improve its woeful propaganda machine. There must be no more Abu Ghraib's or Guantanamo Bay's.

10. The President must be seen to do more in attempting to broker a peaceful agreement in the Arab-Israeli conflict and in Kashmir.

Adorable Little Rodent-o-Sphere Blog Round Up

Ten of the week's best posts from the outer reaches of the blogosphere.

i) Following the ALP's decision to force employers to hold jobs open for up to 24 months, fleeced asks the obvious question 'Why Employ Women' at all. i can only assume that none of the ALP have ever tried to run a small business.

ii) Very thoughtful (and sad) post from Ruthie Zaftig on the pernicious influence of the hip-hop lifestyle on black youth.

iii) Nancy Reyes, a retired doctor living in the Philippines, provides instructions on how to get from London To New York using Google Maps. A peach of a blog.

iv) A comprehensive and informative post by YouDontKnowMe on multiculturalism and immigration in the UK. As controversial as it is interesting.

v) Aussie Dave at IsraellyCool speculates that the Bob Woolmer murder investigation may be taking a predictable turn.

vi) The Last Ditch identifies the twin causes of crime - (a) criminals and (b) Guardianistas who hold 'society', not criminals responsible.

vii) Bishop Hill has the solution to Global Warming.

viii) The Pub Philosopher counters the 'hang the paedophiles' brigade with some common sense.

ix) Popovich at Tao of Defiance warns of the upcoming Car-BQ season in France following the likely Sarkozy victory.

x) Elle Seymour has an interesting piece on Israeli nuclear whistleblower, Mordechai Vanunu, asking hero or traitor?

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Democracy For All?

"Only parties that sign up to democracy should be allowed to use democracy."

commenter, field.

mmmm...

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

The Real Causes of Crime

"You read in the papers, 'Ah, well it's because of lack of opportunities.' Rubbish, what part don't you understand? What lack of opportunities? They had a reasonable education, they come from reasonable families, with very stable backgrounds, financially sound. Khyam came from a privileged background, he lives in a semi-detached house. He was born and bred here. He drove a brand new jeep."

The uncle of Omar Khyam, leader of the fertiliser bombers.